Fair Deal Failure

How Jason Kenney and the UCP 'Smoke and Mirrors' Fair Deal Roadshow Will Fail Spectacularly

No one ever received a 'fair deal' before divorce court otherwise there would not even be a divorce court. The fact that Jason Kenney thinks he can get a 'fair deal' out of Canada and Trudeau before getting a divorce decree is completely naive. Does he really believe that as a conservative he can walk into Ottawa and get anything close to a fair deal? Did he look at the map of the last election?

Or is the real truth that he hopes to put on a big show for the people of Alberta and walk away with a few tidbits enough to quell the calls for separation. That is the real truth behind the whole UCP 'fair deal' dog and pony show now coming to a Parliament Hill near you. Sure Trudeau could dump the RCMP into Kenney's lap as well as the 75% cost the feds cover to run the Alberta force or they could let Kenney set up his own CPP styled retirement plan but Kenney would have to eat the massive unfunded liability that goes with CPP. In both cases the transfer and tax payments would still flow, harsh economy killing environmental laws and woke policy would remain and open access to tidewater would be a complete no go. If I was Trudeau, both the RCMP and the CPP seem like viable ways to get some really bad, money bleeding assets off my books.

Of course Trudeau will also demand some sort of quid pro quo, like an end to fighting for more pipelines, etc. For Trudeau, I see a host of wins available that would cut the federal government expenditure in Alberta while still reaping the rewards of the resource piggy bank that is the province. Just imagine if you could get someone to haul your garbage away for free while getting them to pay you for the privilege. That's the position the federal government of Canada is aiming for. The trouble with any negotiation is that the party that wants something is the party not in the driver seat and Kenny is going to Ottawa hat in hand instead of the other way around. Exactly what kind of deal does that set up?

The federal government has absolutely no reason to support Kenney in any way unless it benefits the powers in the east. The only thing they could possibly gain is the loss of support from one of the two groups they need to maintain power (the NDP and the Bloc). Why would Trudeau ever do such a thing? It would be dumber than the time he painted his face black to mock a black person not that many years ago and although Trudeau may be dim enough to do something stupid, I'm pretty sure the power brokers behind the Liberal party are not that dim. There is simply no reason to give Jason Kenney anything unless it brings something back that the Bloc or the NDP can get behind like saving money on expenditures in Alberta and pouring the savings back into Quebec.

Strong negotiation begins from a position of power and strength and not from a position of weakness. The easiest way to do this is for Kenney to hold a referendum and get a separation mandate from the people of Alberta. Then the provincial government would be in a much better position to negotiate with Canada. The possibility that shipments from the west coast would need to negotiate transit across Alberta the same way Alberta's oil needs to fight for transit to tide water would cripple the port of Vancouver and the BC economy just like Albertas. Since Vancouver is a Liberal stronghold, it is likely that such a change would usher in a new era of diplomacy where equal parties could agree on mutually beneficial terms like adults. For Trudeau and the Liberals this would be a nightmare scenario. Doubly so because an Alberta referendum win could reignite Quebec separation and a two front war for the Liberals.

Alberta could also force the CO2 spewing port of Vancouver to shut its doors by negotiating a quid pro quo status for the port comparable to the oil sands with a border crossing carbon tax for all trucks transiting through Alberta. If BC wants to walk the environmental talk, and talk the environmental talk then let them stop being environmental hypocrites. Also a carbon tax on imported plastic might also help temper the flow in Vancouver. Of course they could also just stop the rhetoric and tone down the anti-Alberta talk emanating from the greater Vancouver and Victoria area and provide open access to a tidewater free trade zone without blockade style legal challenges and delays. Once again a free and independent Alberta shutting its border to BC shipping traffic is negotiating from a position of equality instead of weakness.

Any good negotiator all the way from Trump down to a used car salesman know the secret of any negotiation is knowing how much more the other person wants what you have then your desire to let them have it. That is a position of power that Jason Kenney just does not have anywhere. So to fake out the people of Alberta with some lame 'fair deal' is pointless. No one is that stupid to believe that the UCP will actually get anything of value out of Ottawa.

Even the whole name of the thing 'fair deal' smacks of desperation and weakness like 'hey come on Justin be fair and give us a fair deal.....please....Justin?' If I went to Ottawa to negotiate, it would be under the banner of a divorce decree. I would be traveling to track down Justin and force him to sign the papers and start negotiating on communal property. My deal would be a 'divorce deal' and it would not be optional. I would start by demanding the world and saw off at an independent Alberta. Then maybe the federal government would come to the table with a negotiated settlement that was honest and agreeable to all.

Whimpering into Ottawa to beg for a 'fair deal' is pathetic. I wouldn't give Kenney the time of day if I were Justin or at least I'd make him haul out some of the trash I had lying around.

Now that's a fair deal for Canada.

#thealbertaindependent